War in Mali …

On Thursday, January 17, 2013 at about 04:00 GMT a terrorist group has attacked a bus carrying workers from In Amenas South East of Algeria). In the attack two Britons and an Algerian national had been killed, while two other British nationals, a Norwegian, two Algerian police officers and a security guard were hurt in the fire fight. Afterwards, the militants drove to the gas facility’s living quarters and took a number of Algerian and foreign workers hostage.
DICE has learned from a reliable sources that  the hostages taken by the terrorist are 45 e not 41 and among them are Americans, Swedes, French, Japanese, British,  Norwegians, Malaysian and Filipino nationals were also among the hostages. 
The terrorists, after taking over the base, are holed up with hostages in the part reserved for foreigners, leaving free in the infrastructure the employees of Algerian nationality. 
As is well known the gas field is 21 miles west of the Libyan border and operated by the Algerian state oil company, Sonatrach, along with the British oil company BP and Norway’s Statoil. 
On the evening of Wednesday, the Algerian Special Forced, specialized in the fight against terrorism, are deployed around the perimeter of the base and Initial contacts have already been established with the group of kidnappers while the Algerian Ministry of Interior announced that there will be no negotiations or satisfaction of claims.
According information diffused by the media, the terrorist group would be led by Islamist leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar whose group has claimed responsibility for the attack and the taking of hostages. His voice apparently has been recognized by the security services during telephone conversations with the kidnappers, but DICE is not able to confirm that Belmokhtar is present inside the compound occupied by the attackers. 
According several sources interviewed by DICE the night of January 17, the terrorist group is made up of twenty members entered -contrary to the claims by the Algerian authority- from the south of Libya. DICE has not yet established the nationality of everyone, but it seems to be the majority of Libyans, Algerians, and some Tunisians.  
All sources questioned until the time of writing this SitRep have expressed surprise at the attack, that -has been emphasized by all- would put an end to the secret agreement reached by the Algerian security forces with the Islamists, which provided the non-aggression between the parties. Incidentally remains unclear the conclusion  of the kidnapping in April 2012 of the Algerian consul in GAO (Mali) and its six employees. As is known, the three employees were released, while one died and the other three the fate is unknown (perhaps in spite of the assertions of the Algerian Government it is a ransom paid in half?) 
Many doubts also have been collected from DICE among its local contacts about the direct participation of Belmokhtar (AKA ‘One-eyed’) in the operation. This last, in fact, has been described as very shrewd person, who in the past had bargained with the authorities of Mauritania his reintegration into society. For a period Belmokhtar abandoned  smuggling (in the area is known by the nickname of Marlboro for its trade of cigarettes). After he become leader of the Saharan faction of Al Qaeda of Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and has Organised the importation of arms for the underground network from Niger and Mali, as well as the kidnapping of Western citizens. He is wanted on terrorism charges in Algeria. 
A very reliable source reports to DICE that he is married with the daughter of a Tuareg chief tribe and he and his family are living in Northern Mali.  The source added that the disputes that erupted within AQIM around the end of last year may have inspired the attack against In Amenas gas installations. The attack on foreigners, in fact, re-launch the figure of Mokhtar Belmokhtar as a great leader among the AQIM followers, but on the other hand, the operation is too large and complex to have been organized only by Belmokhtar and definitely not prepared in few days as response to the French intervention in Mali. DICE has learned that already last week the Algerian security forces seized in the South East a group of four terrorist while traveling in a pickup. 
All sources consulted by DICE have expressed strong concern about the fate of the hostages. It is clear that something between Islamist groups active in the south and the Algerian authorities has gone wrong.
Algeria has done the impossible act to prevent the French intervention in Mali, in fact Algeria knew that the price would have been the security in the south of the country. According to the sources of DICE, at this point, unfortunately, to the Algerian authorities remains only the choice of an armed intervention, which involves very high risks to the hostages, but no matter what the choice, the attitude of Algiers against militant strong holds in Mali is going to change. Conversely also for the terrorist there is no choice, considering that if the dialogue with Algiers is not restored, it is left only the way of martyrdom.